Nicole Maestas (Harvard) will present:
"The Effect of Economic Conditions on the Disability Insurance Program: Evidence from the Great Recession"
at 3:20pm on Wednesday, March 7, 2018 in 310 Silsby.

Please sign up for a meeting, lunch, or dinner at:
 https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1jo1SGBFUSVK7eWWjBXqOiEH81I6sqlvPFaety7lslI0/edit?usp=sharing

ABSTRACT:

We examine the effect of cyclical job displacement during the Great Recession on the Social Security Disability Insurance (SSDI) program. Exploiting variation in the severity and
timing of the recession across states, we estimate the causal effect of unemployment on SSDI applications and awards. We find the Great Recession induced nearly one million SSDI
applications that otherwise would not have been filed, of which 41.8 percent were awarded benefits, resulting in over 400,000 new beneficiaries who made up 8.9 percent of all SSDI
entrants between 2008-2012. More than one-half of the recession-induced awards were made on appeal. The induced applicants had less severe impairments than the average applicant. Only 9
percent had the most severe, automatically-qualifying impairments, 33 percent had functional impairments and no transferable skills, and the rest were denied for having insufficiently severe
impairments and/or transferable skills. Our estimates imply the Great Recession increased claims processing costs by $2.960 billion during 2008-2012, and SSDI benefit obligations by $55.730
billion in present value, or $97.365 billion including both SSDI and Medicare benefits.






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