Week 4: Dealing with Uncertainty, Part 1: Numerical Reasoning

When we’re trying to do good, there is often much more that we’re uncertain about than that we’re certain about. Our choices are nearly infinite, and there’s always a substantial chance that we’ll accidentally do harm. What strategies can we use to manage uncertainty usefully?

(Optional) Readings: Why Maximize Expected Value?<http://reducing-suffering.org/why-maximize-expected-value/>, Moral Uncertainty: Towards a Solution<http://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/01/moral-uncertainty-towards-a-solution.html>, Infinite Ethics<http://www.nickbostrom.com/ethics/infinite.pdf>,


We'll also be discussing questions like: should altruists be risk averse? Do infinities corrupt expected value calculations? When should we embrace repugnant conclusions? and how should we handle uncertainty between different moral theories?



As always, meetings are open to all of campus and held in Collis 218 on Friday from 4:30 to 6pm.

(We're loosely following Berkeley's effective altruism course syllabus<https://docs.google.com/document/d/1pUpN9zQnBBOk7L-ectinoiwCOCmB8SWc0ojL76a7Zhg/edit>.)